The Doctor will see you now.

As some of you will already know, I am facing surgery on Friday to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament on my right thumb. I tried, in a spectacularly unsuccessful way, to challenge Newton's observations on gravity while riding my bike last week with my old buddy Paul. (I love you man). Needless to say, abruptly placing the entirety of a 180 lb retired PM on one's thumb causes bad things to happen. My hand surgeon said in twenty years she'd never seen a worse displacement. If I was hitchhiking, cars on the other side of the road would be stopping.

The immediate response of some of my friends was to advise me to "see my guy", referencing their golf-buddy Doctor friend who is "very good". You can't get a better reference than some guy who can do complicated surgery and make a sliding 20 footer for par. Think Rodney Dangerfield with a scalpel.

Needless to say I actually ignored this well-intentioned but ill-advised approach and actually went through the "system" where I ended up with a Doctor that specializes in hand and wrist injuries. What confidence do I have in her you may ask? As with much of today's decision-making, there's an App for that. At least, there's a web-based Doctor evaluation site including reviews of the past performance from former patients.

Low and behold, she got rave reviews. But I admit, I really don't know if she's an exceptional talent or just lucky that things went well for her patients. After meeting with her, I got a good feeling it was the former.

Skill vs luck is a very touchy subject for many players in the financial markets as well. Being spectacularly right only once has made geniuses of many a bold trader. Unfortunately, with a sample space of one, there isn't a way to know for sure.

Jim Rogers, who along with George Soros made the home-run bet on commodities in the seventies, is a perfect example. Now a grumpy perma-bear, he has called 8 or 9 of the last zero corrections since the 2009 bottom. But having a bow tie somehow makes you smart enough to get some CNBC face time.

Do we really know that our approach to managing money is a reflection of superior insight and analysis, or just a random walk? I always liked to say that a bull market makes geniuses of a lot of lucky managers. I was never as smart as I looked in the good times, and hopefully was never as dumb as I looked in the bad. Good luck is always a welcome friend on the one's market journey, so welcome it in and enjoy its company.

Speaking of doctors, DR. Copper is stirring from his slumber. China's recent GDP numbers along with bullish comments from Chile's Codelco did the trick. In the past week, the metal with a Phd in economics has rallied out of its consolidation phase sending the underlying stocks higher. Buy EWG, EWY, JJC, FCX, FM, LUN, etc.

The rotation that I spoke of recently is quietly moving forward, although masked by the preoccupation with the U.S. earnings parade. It will be a long process to "top out" the Tech trade. The Netflix subscriber beat initially looked bullish but with such lofty valuations it should mark a peak. Look to short Tech, but only after the earnings season has run its course.

Yellen's backsliding into the dovish camp, combined with increased evidence of the secular inflation argument, is keeping yields in check, thus keeping the pot boiling for growth stock risk takers. Although the yield curve is slowly flattening, like boiling a frog in a pot of water, it may take longer for the bulls to feel the heat. As for the hedge trade, the Vix is almost a gift with a nine handle. But unless you actually have a fire, your insurance premiums always look like a waste of money.

Til next week,

Thumbs up!