Nickles in front of a Steamroller

The only thing to fear seems to be the lack of fear itself.

Risk model: 3 out of 5 - mildly bullish but still no rotation to cyclicals.

The bounce in the market in response to the Fed rate hike last week is far from convincing. But the response, however muted, is instructive. Tech stocks led the bounce and the worst performing sectors, energy and financials faded fast.

The portfolio performance chase usually reaches a turning point at the semi-annual reporting period. The pressure to meet clients and show off a portfolio chock full of the winning trades is enormous, especially since the concentration of the index reaches extremes.

Until we turn the page to the third quarter expect more of this position squaring behaviour.

The hawkish commentary from Fed officials seems feeble and more based on hope than evidence.

Where is the inflation threat coming from? Wages can rise all they want but the pass-through to prices is problematic. I don't think the response to wage pressure at Kroger is top of mind. Amazon has just thrown down a 10 pointer; buying Whole Foods to win the Slam Dunk contest in retailing. Lower pricing will surely follow.

Disruption is a fact of life and anyone who doesn't believe it still shops at Hudson's Bay.

So the slide to a flat yield curve continues quietly, setting up the inveitable correction in risk assets.

The only nickle I'm gonna pick up is the one on the green that marks my ball.